Saturday 3 November 2007

re: don't worry sir

Listen Mungo. Listen to the words. All of them. Don't just grab the headline. If we're going to win this bet, we need to learn how to analyse things properly.

Heart transplant patients, even DIY cases, have a 10% chance of dying within 30 days of connecting the new heart to the old body. That, my impestuous and scientifically-ignorant friend, is FACT. All that happened here was a tiny LITTLE blip from 10% to 35%. In earth terms, that represents a mere 300% increase in risk of death.

You will know - or at least I hope you do, that we do not even acknowledge something unless the risk increases by 2500% over a sustained time-pulse of 13 parsecs. Read the manual will you?

I have questions though:
what happens to the hearts of the patients who die within the 30 day cutoff - are they recycled?
what if someone dies on day 31 - do they count? does anyone notice?

get wise, Mungo. We must be smarter than this.

Ignacious

No comments: